Insights

Buy or Rent: An Elegant Solution

  • Peter Lynch

I am consistently impressed by the range of free tools websites are offering to help readers make informed decisions. The New York Times posted a LINK this morning for an online calculator that uses a series of simple inputs to determine the economics of buying vs. renting a home. The user interface is elegant (see photo above) and so inviting you may feel compelled to test it even if you’re already committed to a 30 year mortgage…

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Billion Dollar Entrepreneur

  • Peter Lynch

JPE.com may be the coolest private equity website I’ve seen. It has one page (excluding Contact), and just lists the professional accomplishments of the man behind the fund: Bradley S. Jacbos. Turns out he has founded or co-founded four companies, all of which became multi-billion dollar entities:

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Howard Marks: "Worst-Case" Projections

  • Peter Lynch

We probably look at 175 – 200 investment opportunities annually (someone actually employs me…). Most of these are brought to us by investment banks, and some come with projections offering a range of outcomes. The best-case projection often looks like a hockey stick: historically flat or with a slight positive trend, but showing explosive growth for the projected period. In stark contrast, the worst-case projection hardly ever shows revenue declining. At worst (according to the materials provided) revenues will remain constant.

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Extremely Sloppy and Dubious Sell-Side Research

  • Peter Lynch

Kerrisdale Capital posted an eye-opening piece earlier this year detailing “extremely sloppy” work published by analysts at well-known banks. The focus is on “one of the most basic inputs of equity valuation: the number of fully diluted shares of common stock.”

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Theme Investing & Valuation

  • Peter Lynch

In a management presentation not too long ago I was made aware of an investment theme completely unknown to me previously: ballast water treatment. Ballast water is used by shipping vessels, such as bulk carriers or tankers, to maintain stability in transit. Larger ships can carry millions of gallons of water in their ballast tanks, which is brought on board and discharged between ports as needed. Coincidentally, a colleague of mine recently e-mailed me a copy of Janney Capital Markets Infrastructure Quarterly Newsletter, which had some data on the subject I thought was worth sharing:

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